Next Senedd election

Next Senedd election

On or before 7 May 2026

All 96 seats to the Senedd
49 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Eluned Morgan Darren Millar Rhun ap Iorwerth
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 24 July 2024 5 December 2024 16 June 2023
Last election 30 seats (of 60), 36.2% 16 seats (of 60), 25.1% 13 (of 60), 20.7%
Leader's seat before Mid and West Wales Clwyd West Ynys Môn
Running in Ceredigion Penfro Clwyd Bangor Conwy Môn

 
Green
Leader Jane Dodds Anthony Slaughter Nigel Farage
Party Liberal Democrats Green Reform UK
Leader since 3 November 2017 December 2018 3 June 2024
Last election 1 seat (of 60), 4.3% 0 seats (of 60), 4.4% 0 seats (of 60), 1.1%
Leader's seat before Mid and West Wales None None
Running in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd Caerdydd Penarth None

Incumbent First Minister

Eluned Morgan
Labour



The next Senedd election is due to be held by 7 May 2026[1] to elect 96 members to the Senedd (Welsh Parliament; Welsh: Senedd Cymru). It will be the seventh devolved general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. If held in 2026 it will also be the first election following current reforms to the voting system, which would increase the size of the Senedd from 60 members to 96, adopting a party-list voting system, reducing the number of constituencies to sixteen, and shortening its term from five years to four.[2][3] It will also be the second election since the Senedd changed its name in May 2020.

Electoral system

In all prior elections since its establishment as the Welsh Assembly in 1999, the Senedd has been elected through the additional member system, under which 40 out of 60 seats were elected by the first past the post system from single-member constituencies (the same as those used for Westminster), while the remaining 20 were attributed regionally (in 5 regions of 4 seats) on the basis of a second vote for a closed party list of candidates. The additional member seats in each region were allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation.

Following the approval of the Senedd Reform Act, the size of the Senedd will be increased from 60 to 96 MSs, all elected through closed party list proportional representation (using the D'Hondt method). The elections will be organised in 16 six-member constituencies created by pairing up the 32 redrawn Westminster constituencies.[4][5]

Although the new system would only be ready and used for elections held after 6 April 2026, to allow time for the new constituencies to be drawn up.[6] The next election is due to be held on 7 May 2026.[7]

Another proposed reform bill would have provided for mandatory "zipping" of male and female candidates in the list to ensure that for every party, half of the Members will be women. However, this bill was scrapped in September 2024.[8]

Constituencies

Map of the 16 constituencies to be used for the election[a]
  • Afan Ogwr Rhondda
  • Bangor Conwy Môn
  • Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
  • Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
  • Caerdydd Penarth
  • Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf
  • Casnewydd Islwyn
  • Ceredigion Penfro
  • Clwyd
  • Fflint Wrecsam
  • Gwynedd Maldwyn
  • Gŵyr Abertawe
  • Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
  • Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr
  • Sir Fynwy Torfaen
  • Sir Gaerfyrddin

Incumbent Senedd members

MSs who have announced their retirement are in italics.

Members currently in office 2026 Senedd election
Old constituency Member Old region Members New constituency Incumbents seeking re-election Elected members
Aberconwy
  Janet Finch-Saunders (Con)
North Wales
  Carolyn Thomas (Lab)
  Mark Isherwood (Con)
  Sam Rowlands (Con)
Bangor Conwy Môn
  Janet Finch-Saunders (Con, #1)

TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Ynys Môn
Clwyd West Clwyd
  Hannah Blythyn (Lab, #1)

  Carolyn Thomas (Lab, #2)

TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Delyn
  Hannah Blythyn (Lab)
Vale of Clwyd
  Gareth Davies (Con)
Alyn and Deeside
  Jack Sargeant (Lab)
Fflint Wrecsam
  Ken Skates (Lab, #1)

  Jack Sargeant (Lab, #2)

  Sam Rowlands (Con, #1)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Wrexham
  Lesley Griffiths (Lab)
Arfon Gwynedd Maldwyn
  Mabon ap Gwynfor (Plaid, #2)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Clwyd South
Dwyfor Meirionnydd
  Mabon ap Gwynfor (Plaid)
Mid and West Wales
  Cefin Campbell (Plaid)
  Eluned Morgan (Lab)
  Joyce Watson (Lab)
Montgomeryshire
  Russell George (Con)
Carmarthen West and
South Pembrokeshire
  Samuel Kurtz (Con)
Ceredigion Penfro
  Elin Jones (Plaid, #1)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Ceredigion
Preseli Pembrokeshire
  Paul Davies (Con)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Sir Gaerfyrddin
  Cefin Campbell (Plaid, #1)

  Adam Price (Plaid, #3)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Llanelli
Brecon and Radnorshire
  James Evans (Con)
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd
  Sioned Williams (Plaid, #1)

  James Evans (Con, #1)

TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Neath South Wales West
  Tom Giffard (Con)
  Altaf Hussain (Con)
  Sioned Williams (Plaid)
  Luke Fletcher (Plaid)
Gower Gŵyr Abertawe
  Tom Giffard (Con, #1)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Swansea East
  Mike Hedges (Lab)
Swansea West
  Julie James (Lab)
Aberavon
  David Rees (Lab)
Afan Ogwr Rhondda
  Buffy Williams (Lab, #2)

  David Rees (Lab, #3)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Ogmore
Rhondda
  Buffy Williams (Lab)
(South Wales Central)
Bridgend
  Sarah Murphy (Lab)
(South Wales West) Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg
  Luke Fletcher (Plaid, #3)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Vale of Glamorgan South Wales Central
  Joel James (Con)
  Rhys ab Owen (Plaid)
  Heledd Fychan (Plaid)
Cardiff South and Penarth Caerdydd Penarth TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Cardiff West
Cardiff Central
  Jenny Rathbone (Lab)
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Cardiff North
Cynon Valley
  Vikki Howells (Lab)
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Pontypridd
  Mick Antoniw (Lab)
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
  Dawn Bowden (Lab)
South Wales East
  Laura Anne Jones (Ref)
  Natasha Asghar (Con)
  Peredur Owen Griffiths (Plaid)
  Delyth Jewell (Plaid)
Blaenau Gwent Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni
  Delyth Jewell (Plaid, #1)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Caerphilly
  Hefin David (Lab)
Islwyn
  Rhianon Passmore (Lab)
Casnewydd Islwyn
  Natasha Asghar (Con, #1)
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Newport East
  John Griffiths (Lab)
Newport West
  Jayne Bryant (Lab)
Monmouth
  Peter Fox (Con)
Sir Fynwy Torfaen TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
Torfaen
  Lynne Neagle (Lab)

Candidates

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election who are seeking re-election are bolded.[9]

Constituency Order Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative Reform UK Liberal Democrats Green Others and independents
Bangor Conwy Môn 1 Rhun ap Iorwerth Janet Finch-Saunders
2 Mair Rowlands
3 Elfed Williams
4 Dyfed Jones
5
6
Clwyd 1 Hannah Blythyn Llyr Gruffydd Darren Millar Martyn Hogg
2 Carolyn Thomas Becca Martin Gareth Davies
3 Oliver Bradley-Hughes
4
5
6
Fflint Wrecsam 1 Ken Skates Carrie Harper Sam Rowlands Lee Lavery
2 Jack Sargeant Marc Jones
3 Kayleigh Unitt
4
5
6
Gwynedd Maldwyn 1 Siân Gwenllian Glyn Preston
2 Mabon ap Gwynfor Leena Farhat
3 Beca Brown
4 Elwyn Vaughan
5 Elin Hywel
6
Ceredigion Penfro 1 Eluned Morgan[10] Elin Jones Sandra Jervis
2 Kerry Ferguson Alistair Cameron
3 Anna Nicholl
4 Cris Tomos
5
6
Sir Gaerfyrddin 1 Cefin Campbell
2 Nerys Evans
3 Adam Price
4 Mari Arthur
5 Iwan Griffiths
6 Abi Thomas
Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd 1 Sioned Williams James Evans Jane Dodds
2 Beca Phillips William Powell
3 Andrew Jenkins Jackie Charlton
4 Justin Horrell
5
6
Gŵyr Abertawe 1 Tom Giffard Sam Bennett
2 Franck Banza
3
4
5
6
Afan Ogwr Rhondda 1 Huw Irranca-Davies Sera Evans
2 Buffy Williams Alun Cox
3 David Rees Elyn Stephens
4
5
6
Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg 1 Mark Hooper
2 Sarah Rees
3 Luke Fletcher
4 Marianne Cowpe
5 Becci Smart
6
Caerdydd Penarth 1 Anna Brychan Anthony Slaughter
2 Kiera Marshall
3 Leticia Gonzalez
4 Neil Roberts
5
6
Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf 1 Dafydd Trystan Rodney Berman
2 Zaynub Akbar Nick Beckett
3 Nick Carter
4
5
6
Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr 1
2
3
4
5
6
Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni 1 Delyth Jewell
2 Lindsay Whittle
3 Niamh Salkeld
4
5
6
Casnewydd Islwyn 1 Natasha Asghar
2
3
4
5
6
Sir Fynwy Torfaen 1
2
3
4
5
6

Campaign

On 2 February 2025, Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan said she would be open to a coalition with Plaid Cymru after the election "if needs must". She ruled out a coalition with Reform UK, as she thought there was a "red line on that one". She rejected the suggestion put to her that Welsh Labour was under threat at the election, explaining that there is "an international shift going on at the moment and we've got several months now to make sure people understand what's at stake here". She also called Reform an "English focused party" with "nothing Welsh about" them.[11] A day later, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth similarly ruled out working with Reform, describing the two parties' worldviews as "fundamentally different."[12]

In April 2025 Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said his party "would work with any other Senedd party" and that the new voting system means "it's not going to be easy" to win an overall majority.[13]

Opinion polling

For the election to be held in May 2026, Wales has been divided into 16 multi-member constitencies, each based on a combination of two adjacent Westminster Parliamentary constituences. Each of these 16 constituencies will elect 6 members of the Welsh Parliament using a system of proportional representation.

LOESS curve of polling conducted
  Sample size below 1,000.[b]
Dates
conducted
Pollster Client Sample
size
Lab Con Plaid Cymru Green Lib Dems Reform Others Lead
18 Jun3 Jul 2025 Beaufort Research Nation Cymru 400 27% 13% 21% 6% 5% 25% 2% 2
18 Jun3 Jul 2025 More in Common Sky News 883 23% 10% 26% 4% 7% 28% 2% 2
5–16 Jun 2025 FindOutNow N/A 2,101 18% 11% 27% 7% 7% 29% 1% 2
23–30 Apr 2025 YouGov ITV Wales/Cardiff University 1,265 18% 13% 30% 5% 7% 25% 2% 5
10 Mar3 Apr 2025 Survation N/A 809 27% 15% 24% 5% 5% 24% 1% 3
3–23 Mar 2025 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 1,000 27% 16% 24% 5% 4% 23% 1% 3
25–29 Nov 2024 YouGov[15] Barn Cymru 1,121 23% 19% 24% 6% 5% 23% 1% 1
4–24 Nov 2024 Beaufort Research Nation.Cymru 500 27% 18% 17% 6% 6% 24% 2% 3
18 Oct4 Nov 2024 Survation[s 1] Reform UK 2,006 29% 18% 20% 7% 7% 19% 1% 9
6 Aug 2024 Eluned Morgan becomes First Minister of Wales[16]
5–18 Jul 2024 Welsh Election Study N/A 2,565 25% 16% 24% 6% 6% 16%
8%
AWA on 7%
Other on 1%
1
4 Jul 2024 2024 United Kingdom general election
27 Jun1 Jul 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,072 27% 18% 23% 5% 6% 18% 3% 4
5–7 Jun 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 960 36% 22% 18% 6% 6% 11%
2%
AWA on 2%
Other on 0%
14
30 May3 Jun 2024 YouGov Barn Cymru 1,066 30% 19% 23% 6% 6% 12% 4% 7
18–19 May 2024 Redfield & Wilton N/A 900 37% 20% 20% 5% 3% 10%
5%
AWA on 5%
Other on 0%
17
8 May 2024 The Senedd Reform Act is approved, implementing a new one-list electoral system by 2026.
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (regional)[17] 36.2% 25.1% 20.7% 4.4% 4.3% 1.1% 8.2% 11.1
6 May 2021 2021 Senedd election (constituency)[17] 39.9% 26.1% 20.3% 1.6% 4.9% 1.6% 5.6% 13.8

Retiring members

The following MSs have announced their intention to not run for re-election:

MS Constituency/Region First elected Party Date announced
Mark Drakeford Cardiff West 2011 Labour 9 August 2023[18]
Vaughan Gething Cardiff South and Penarth 2011 Labour 7 September 2024[19]
Lee Waters Llanelli 2016 Labour 24 October 2024[20]
Dawn Bowden Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 2016 Labour 17 January 2025[21]
Mick Antoniw Pontypridd 2011 Labour 24 January 2025[22]
Joyce Watson Mid and West Wales 2007 Labour 25 January 2025[23]
Rebecca Evans Gower 2011 Labour 8 February 2025
Julie Morgan Cardiff North 2011 Labour 11 February 2025[24]
Lesley Griffiths Wrexham 2007 Labour 14 February 2025[25]
John Griffiths Newport East 1999 Labour 17 February 2025[26]
Jane Hutt Vale of Glamorgan 1999 Labour 21 February 2025[27]
Julie James Swansea West 2011 Labour 21 February 2025[27]
Jenny Rathbone Cardiff Central 2011 Labour 21 February 2025[28]
Russell George Montgomeryshire 2011 Conservatives 22 April 2025[29]

Notes

  1. ^ Labelled using their sole Welsh names, with Caerdydd being the Welsh name for Cardiff
  2. ^ The British Polling Council states that a sample size of at least 1,000 is the "established norm" for any poll in Great Britain. However, there is no "minimum" acceptable sample size.[14]
  1. ^ Survation asked voters to give their preferences under the current Additional Member System. The figure shown in this table is the proportional (regional) vote, as that is the closest equivalent to the new party list system.

See also

References

  1. ^ Owens, Cathy (8 September 2021). "What to expect from the next five years in Welsh politics". WalesOnline. Retrieved 29 September 2021.
  2. ^ Mansfield, Mark (8 May 2024). "MSs approve Senedd reform bill". Nation.Cymru.
  3. ^ Browne, Adrian; Deans, David (8 May 2024). "Senedd expansion plans get go-ahead in Cardiff Bay vote". BBC Wales.
  4. ^ "Plans for more Senedd politicians get go-ahead". BBC News. 17 May 2022. Retrieved 14 June 2022.
  5. ^ "Senedd reform | GOV.WALES". www.gov.wales. 9 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
  6. ^ "Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024". legislation.gov.uk.
  7. ^ "See exactly when the next election in Wales will be". South Wales Argus. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 19 August 2024.
  8. ^ Browne, Adrian (24 September 2024). "Senedd backs U-turn on election gender quotas". BBC News. Retrieved 26 October 2024.
  9. ^ Price, Emily (29 May 2025). "Plaid Cymru reveals candidates for new Gwynedd Maldwyn constituency". nation.cymru. Retrieved 29 May 2025.
  10. ^ "First minister to fight new seat at next election". BBC News. Retrieved 3 July 2025.
  11. ^ Fortescue, Ali (2 February 2025). "Could we be about to witness a seismic political shift in Wales?". Sky News. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
  12. ^ Rodgers, Sienna (3 February 2025). "Plaid Cymru Leader Rules Out Working With Reform In Any Way". Politics Home. Archived from the original on 6 February 2025. Retrieved 6 February 2025.
  13. ^ Murrie, Ewan (23 April 2025). "Reform UK 'would work with any other Senedd party'". BBC News. Retrieved 23 April 2025.
  14. ^ "FAQs About Polling". British Polling Council.
  15. ^ "Plaid Cymru leads new Senedd poll with Conservatives in 4th place". Nation.Cymru. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  16. ^ Allen, Briony (6 August 2024). "Welsh Labour leadership: How Eluned Morgan was selected as first minister of Wales". Institute for Government. Retrieved 3 March 2025.
  17. ^ a b Davies, Owain; Holzinger, Owen; McCarthy, Joanne; Jones, Helen (2021). Senedd Election 2021: Research Briefing (PDF). Senedd Research. p. 16.
  18. ^ Deans, David; James, Bethan (9 August 2023). "Mark Drakeford to quit Senedd at next election". BBC News. Retrieved 9 August 2023.
  19. ^ "Former Welsh first minister Vaughan Gething to stand down at next election". The Guardian. 7 September 2024. Retrieved 7 September 2024.
  20. ^ "Wales' 20mph minister to step down in 2026". BBC News. 24 October 2024. Retrieved 25 October 2024.
  21. ^ "Minister to quit ahead of Wales' 2026 election". BBC News. 17 January 2025. Retrieved 18 January 2025.
  22. ^ Price, Emily (24 January 2025). "Senior Labour politician to step down at next Senedd election". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 24 January 2025.
  23. ^ Mansfield, Mark (25 January 2025). "Joyce Watson announces she is stepping down at next Senedd election". Nation.Cymru. Retrieved 25 January 2025.
  24. ^ Mosalski, Ruth (22 January 2025). "The Senedd members and ministers who won't stand for Senedd re-election". Wales Online. Retrieved 12 February 2025.
  25. ^ "Lesley Griffiths: Labour ex-minister quits ahead of 2026 election". www.bbc.com. 14 February 2025. Retrieved 17 February 2025.
  26. ^ "'It has been a huge honour': Long-serving Newport MS to step down". South Wales Argus. 17 February 2025. Retrieved 17 February 2025.
  27. ^ a b Browne, Adrian (21 February 2025). "UK's longest-serving female minister leaves Senedd". BBC News. Retrieved 22 February 2025.
  28. ^ Rathbone, Jenny [@JennyRathbone] (21 February 2025). "It has been my privilege to represent..." (Tweet). Retrieved 25 February 2025 – via Twitter.
  29. ^ Deans, David (22 April 2025). "Gambling charge Tory Russell George quits Senedd re-election bid". BBC News. Retrieved 22 April 2025.